The Philosopher's Tool Kit by Steven Scott Aspenson

Author:Steven Scott Aspenson [Aspenson, Steven Scott]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: International Relations, Political Science, General
ISBN: 9781315292915
Google: pp4YDQAAQBAJ
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2016-09-16T12:10:23+00:00

What sorts of inferences can we identify in this piece? The inferences from the dinted and marked-up watch-case to the watch being kept in a pocket with coin and key, and from that to the owner being careless are by no means deductive. There is no guarantee in either case—no logical, conceptual, synthetic, or even natural necessity. The reasoning is from effects to causes, and since effects can have more than one cause, we might say that cause and effect are always logically distinct—the reasoning relies on inductive support. The four numbers scratched inside the case are thought to suggest repeated possession by a pawnbroker as the best explanation for their presence. Again there is no guarantee that the numbers were etched by a pawnbroker—it is possible, for example, that Watson put them there purposely to deceive Holmes. But since Watson is not known by Holmes to be aware of such a habit of pawnbrokers, Holmes seemingly does not think that explanation for their appearance is very likely—not the best explanation for their appearance.

Holmes’s convictions about what best explains the observed data in this case rest on his awareness of certain regularities: the habits of those who might have possessed the watch. Awareness of such regularities is established, in the first instance, merely by observing people and noting what they do regularly. Enumerating instances of certain actions strengthens belief about what goals or ends people have; and knowing what ends people have gives one information about what means they will choose to attain those ends. For example, knowing that pawnbrokers must keep careful track of their inventory and that they often accomplish that by etching numbers inside their purchases gives one a rule to refer to in cases where there is no observation of the present case available. The method looks like this:

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